Янчук, О. Є. та Шульган, Р. Б. та Ніколайчук, К. М. та Yanchuk, O. E. та Shulhan, R. B. та Nikolaichuk, K. M. (2020) ЕКСПЕРТНА ГРОШОВА ОЦІНКА ЗЕМЕЛЬНИХ ДІЛЯНОК КОМЕРЦІЙНОГО ПРИЗНАЧЕННЯ НА ОСНОВІ ЕКОНОМІКО-СТАТИСТИЧНОГО МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ. Вісник Національного університету водного господарства та природокористування (2(90)). с. 178-192.

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Анотація

У статті проаналізовано ціноутворюючі фактори земельних ділянок комерційного призначення. Підібрано математичні моделі для розрахунку величини експертної грошової оцінки земельних ділянок комерційного призначення.

Title in English

EXPERT MONETARY EVALUATION OF COMMERCIAL LAND BASED ON THE ECONOMIC AND STATISTICAL MODELING

English abstract

The article analyzes the data on the sale of commercial land of the primary market in Rivne for the period 2016-2019. There were 52 of such lands in different regions of Rivne, and their value was focused on the date of the sale of the last land, particularly – May 2019. Indexation is performed using the base inflation index. To model the expert monetary valuation of commercial land in Rivne, the following pricing factors were identified and selected: land area; distance from the centre of the settlement; distance from the highway of city-forming significance; remoteness to the public centre and to the public transport stop. Formalized indicators of these factors are determined. A linear dependence is selected to express the price of 1 m2 of commercial land depending on 5 pricing factors. Taking into consideration the inadequate assessment of the accuracy of the obtained linear model, re-simulation with the selection of the power model was performed. The average square error of the model approximation is 76.78 UAH/m2. While the average sale price of 1 m2 is 408.38 UAH/m2, with a minimum price of 127.76 UAH/m2 and a maximum price of 1190.19 UAH/m2. Thus, the average square error of the approximation is 18% of the average value of the land. Based on the fact that when evaluating the land by the method of comparison sales prices, a difference of 20% is considered acceptable, we will consider such an assessment of accuracy adequate. The obtained models can be used in the expert monetary valuation of commercial land in the city of Rivne. The formed models allow to reduce the influence of subjective factors, to formalize the assessment procedure and to determine the amendments that are applied when using the methodological approach of comparing the selling prices of similar lands. After analyzing the obtained values of the coefficients and their signs, we can come to the conclusion that all dependencies are accordingly proportional.

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